ATCM, Springboard High Street Index Commentary.

  

Small firms optimistic despite credit crunch


Small businesses are remaining upbeat about the year ahead, despite the gloomy outlook for the 2009 economy, according to Orange.


Research from Orange revealed that a fifth of small firms are optimistic about the next twelve months and a third believe it will be a hard start to the year, but will pick up later on. Only 32 per cent of small firms believe they will struggle to cope with the downturn.

 

"It is encouraging that over half the respondents of the survey are optimistic for 2009 or believe that things will pick up throughout the year," said Orange UK vice president for business, Paul Tollett. "We must ensure we do what we can to drive this optimism into action and get British business back on its feet."

 

The survey also found that only a quarter of small firms said their credit facilities had been affected by the economic downturn, while 36 per cent said their credit facilities had been unaffected and that they were confident that credit lines would remain unchanged in the coming year.

 

The Institute of Directors head of parliamentary and regulatory affairs, Alexander Ehmann, said it was unsurprising that firms were managing to remain buoyant about the coming year.

 

"There's no doubt that there have been some really testing economic conditions, and perhaps these will intensify in 2009, but so far it's not the Armageddon that has been painted by some," he said

 

"We've been struck by how positive our members have been, namely by preparing themselves for the worst by making 'easy picking' cutbacks and shedding unnecessary spending in areas like hospitality," added Ehmann. "For the moment, staffing levels are also holding up well and our members seem to be using skills development to maintain and sharpen their competitive edge."

 

Copyright © BHP Information Solutions Ltd. 2009. All rights reserved

Banks commit to support SMEs


The British Bankers' Association (BBA) has revised its guidelines on bank lending to help small firms access the funds they need to survive the economic slowdown.


The rewritten Statement of Principles sets out guidelines which must be implemented by all UK banks that comply with the Business Banking Code.

 

The guidelines for the banks include contacting firms they believe are in trouble, offering to discuss all concerns in person, using their business assets to secure debt before considering personal assets, and helping customers to revise their business plans and forecasts.

 

"Small firms should see the benefits of these guidelines in the new year," said Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) head of parliamentary affairs Stephen Alambritis. "However, the evidence that we have had from businesses is that banks are currently still reluctant to lend.


"The Statement of Principles needs to be highlighted to branch managers - it is important that they are aware that their chief executives have signed up to this code, so that they put it into practice," he added.


The guidelines were revised following pressure from the Government for the banks to help firms that are facing financial difficulty.


"The Principles show that banks are committed to working with business customers to find ways of overcoming the difficulties they may face," said BBA chief executive Angela Knight. "They also emphasise that if the owners and managers of the business take early advice and action, they can work with the bank to sort out difficulties."


In addition, several high-street banks have announced plans to help small businesses, through a range of funding and support packages.


The Royal Bank of Scotland has promised that overdraft facilities for small business customers will remain in place for the next year, with no increase in overdraft costs until at least the end of 2009.


Barclays has stated that it will make an additional £1.5 billion available to its small business customers during 2009. It also pledged not to alter the limit or rate of business overdrafts, providing the borrowers do not have a significant change in circumstances. Meanwhile, HSBC has introduced a £1 billion working capital fund to help small firms.

 

"It's a tough business environment and we want to support our customers, whose continued growth will provide a stimulus to restore the UK economy," said HSBC UK managing director Paul Thurston.

  • For more information on the revised Statement of Principles, visit the BBA website.

Copyright © BHP Information Solutions Ltd. 2009. All rights reserved

 

 

 

Image removed by sender. ATCM-Springboard High Street Index

ATCM - Springboard High Street Index

August 2008 Commentary

 

Image removed by sender. ATCM-Springboard High Street Index

 

Official figures show that August was the least summery since records began in 1929, with just 106 hours of sunshine - a third less than the average for the month. This is a huge contrast to the weather in August last year, which was both sunny for three weeks out of four and had the lowest amount of rainfall since 2003.

It therefore should be no surprise that footfall in our high streets in August was 8.5% lower than in August 2007 and, despite it being the school holiday period, just 0.5% higher than in July.

Indeed, during the six week school holiday period from 21st July until 31st August, footfall was 7.6% lower than for the same six week period last year.

 

Footfall actually peaked in the first week of this period, declining by 9.2% in the following two weeks, and then increasing but by only 7.8% to mid August. Footfall in the sixth week, even with August Bank Holiday, was 5.3% lower than in the first week.

Commentators have been keen to declare that the weak pound and rising inflation meant more people took holidays in the UK this year rather than abroad. This may be the case - even despite the poor weather - however, if so, then our high streets do not seem to be benefiting: during the six week period from 21st July, footfall in coastal town centres was 8.4% lower than in the same six week period last year.

 

In contrast to July, our regional cities seem to have fared better in August than all towns and cities, with a smaller annual decline of 6.5% compared with 8.5% nationally and a greater month on month increase from July of 1.8% (compared with 0.5% nationally).

 

All Towns and Cities

 

Regional Cities

Annual Change:

 

 

Annual Change:

 

Aug 07 to Aug 08

-8.5%

 

Aug 07 to Aug 08

-6.5%

Jul 07 to Jul 08

-2.4%

 

Jul 07 to Jul 08

-3.4%

Jun 07 to Jun 08

1.3%

 

Jun 07 to Jun 08

-1.0%

 

 

 

 

 

Month on month change:

 

 

Month on month change:

 

Jul to Aug 08

0.5%

 

Jul to Aug 08

1.8%

Jul to Aug 07

6.4%

 

Jul to Aug 07

2.9%

Jun to Jul 08

6.1%

 

Jun to Jul 08

5.8%

Jun to Jul 07

8.7%

 

Jun to Jul 07

7.4%

May to Jun 08

4.8%

 

May to Jun 08

4.0%

May to Jun 07

4.4%

 

May to Jun 07

4.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ATCM - Springboard High Street Index

June 2008 Commentary

Whilst all appears to be gloomy within the retail sector, our high streets appear to have a degree of resilience with an annual change in footfall of +1.3% nationally in June.

This contrasts with a decline annually in retail sales of 0.4% in June, as reported by the BRC, however a likely explanation for the difference stems from the exceptionally poor weather last June - the wettest on record - which undoubtedly suppressed footfall in our town centres in June 2007. Indeed in all regions of the UK other than Scotland, rainfall in June last year was between 30% and 65% greater than the average for June during the previous 30 years.

 

 

The impact of adverse weather on town centre footfall - and its implications for June this year - is further demonstrated by looking at the trend week by week during June.

Compared with last year, footfall actually decreased slightly in three of the five weeks during the month, and the only significant year on year increase took place in week 2 (+7.4%) which is the week in which the rainfall commenced last year.

So it seems that the positive results for the high street are deceiving - in the absence of last year's adverse weather conditions it is likely that the year on year change in June this year would have been sub +1.0% and more likely less than +0.5%. Indeed, this is substantiated by the BRC which continues to report that consumer confidence has continued to fall and is reaching new record lows.

 

 

All Towns and Cities

 

Regional Cities

Annual Change:

 

 

Annual Change:

 

Jun 07 to Jun 08

1.3%

 

Jun 07 to Jun 08

-1.0%

May 07 to May 08

-0.1%

 

May 07 to May 08

-4.4%

Apr 07 to Apr 08

-11.4%

 

Apr 07 to Apr 08

-9.5%

 

 

 

 

 

Month on month change:

 

 

Month on month change:

 

May to Jun 08

5.0%

 

May to Jun 08

4.0%

May to Jun 07

4.4%

 

May to Jun 07

4.6%

Apr to May 08

4.7%

 

Apr to May 08

0.5%

Apr to May 07

-6.6%

 

Apr to May 07

-3.0%

Mar to Apr 08

5.6%

 

Mar to Apr 08

1.0%

Mar to Apr 07

9.9%

 

Mar to Apr 07

8.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ATCM - Springboard High Street Index

May 2008 Commentary

 

Image removed by sender. ATCM-Springboard High Street Index

 

At last a bright spot on what has been a fairly dark horizon for the UK's highstreets during 2008. For the first month this year the annual decline infootfall during May was less than 1% (just -0.1% compared with May 2007).This result is highly favourable compared with the annual change of -7% inMay 2007 when there was exceptionally poor weather.

The improvement in activity in our high streets in May reflects better salesperformance amongst the UK's retailers, as reported by the British RetailConsortium. The BRC reported an annual increase in sales of 1.9% in Maywhich compares positively with year on year declines in both March and April,the worst since 2005.

The more favourable weather during May this year undoubtedly helped thehigh street, particularly with the occurrence of two bank holidays at thebeginning and end of the month. The good weather over the May Day bankmeant that footfall was up from 2007 on each day as reported in our Aprilcommentary and, whilst poor weather on Sunday and Monday of the Whitsunbank holiday suppressed high street activity on those days, footfall was up by12.3% on bank holiday Saturday. In 2007, not only was the weather farpoorer, but the oddities of the month end meant that Whitsun bank holidayoccurred in June.

Despite the more positive outlook in May, caution needs to be taken inreporting that it is the beginning of a change in our fortunes. The BRCreports that consumer confidence is at a new low due to the increasingdemand on household budgets and the weakness of the housing marketmaking consumers very price-conscious. This required caution is reinforcedby the fact that weekly performance of the high street deteriorated as Mayprogressed, with footfall in the last week of the month being 9% lower thanin the same week in 2007.

 

 

All Towns and Cities

 

Regional Cities

Annual Change:

 

 

Annual Change:

 

May 07 to May 08

-0.1%

 

May 07 to May 08

-4.4%

Apr 07 to Apr 08

-11.4%

 

Apr 07 to Apr 08

-9.5%

Mar 07 to Mar 08

-8.2%

 

Mar 07 to Mar 08

-7.8%

 

 

 

 

 

Month on month change:

 

 

Month on month change:

 

Apr to May 08

4.7%

 

Apr to May 08

0.5%

Apr to May 07

-6.6%

 

Apr to May 07

-3.0%

Mar to Apr 08

5.6%

 

Mar to Apr 08

1.0%

Mar to Apr 07

9.9%

 

Mar to Apr 07

8.8%

Feb to Mar 08

-4.0%

 

Feb to Mar 08

-4.9%

Feb to Mar 07

4.9%

 

Feb to Mar 07

1.1%

 

 

 

 

 

ATCM - Springboard High Street Index

March 2008 Commentary

 

Image removed by sender. ATCM-Springboard High Street Index

 

Despite an early Easter, there was an year on year decline in high street footfall of 8.2% in March, and a monthly fall of 4% from February to March 2008. These results are in stark contrast to March 2007 when there was a year on year fall of just 1% and a monthly increase from February 2007 of 4.9%.

The occurrence of Easter in March makes a year on year comparison of each week difficult but the Bank Holidays appeared to have a positive impact during the month - in the first two weeks of March flows fell by an average of 4.5%, whilst in the latter half of the month from Easter week onwards footfall increased week on week by an average of 4.2%.

Comparing the Easter bank holidays this year directly with those in 2007 adds further to the disappointing results, with significant year on year falls in footfall on all of the three trading days - footfall on Good Friday and Easter Saturday both declined by 17% from 2007, and by 15% on Easter Monday. Whilst the good weather last year benefited many coastal town centres to the detriment of many inland locations, this year the adverse weather proved to be detrimental to town centres generally across the UK.

The gloom facing our high streets appears to be a characteristic facing the retail sector generally. The British Retail Consortium reported a 1.6% fall in sales from March 2007 which, on the surface, seems to be a modest decline. However, underlying this result is a worrying trend - the BRC states that this level of decline is the worst result for nearly three years and that clothing and footwear sales in March were the worst for eight years. Moreover, they added that all sectors apart from food and homewares delivered negative like-for-like sales across the month, clearly demonstrating the lack of consumer confidence and the focus by customers on essentials.

 

 

All Towns and Cities

 

Regional Cities

Annual Change:

 

 

Annual Change:

 

Mar 07 to Mar 08

-8.2%

 

Mar 07 to Mar 08

-7.8%

Feb 07 to Feb 08

-4.7%

 

Feb 07 to Feb 08

-4.3%

Jan 07 to Jan 08

-3.9%

 

Jan 07 to Jan 08

-6.6%

 

 

 

 

 

Month on month change:

 

 

Month on month change:

 

Feb to Mar 08

-4.0%

 

Feb to Mar 08

-4.9%

Feb to Mar 07

4.9%

 

Feb to Mar 07

1.1%

Jan to Feb 08

11.0%

 

Jan to Feb 08

8.2%

Jan to Feb 07

7.2%

 

Jan to Feb 07

8.6%

Dec to Jan 08

-34.9%

 

Dec to Jan 08

-36.7%

Dec to Jan 07

-37.6%

 

Dec to Jan 07

-38.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ATCM - Springboard High Street Index

December 2007 Commentary

 

ATCM-Springboard High Street Index

 

So it seems that the pundits were right – according to the British Retail Consortium it was the worst December for retail sales since 2004 with a year on year increase of just 0.3%, and a three month trend rate of growth of just 0.8%. Even Marks & Spencer which has had a huge change of fortune this year couldn’t buck the national trend and reported a fall in like-for-like sales of 2.2% in the last quarter of 2007, and a decline of 3.2% for clothing and homewares.

This poor performance of the retail sector was certainly reflected in the level of footfall in the UK’s high streets during December – an annual decline nationally of 8.6% for the month was virtually double that of December 2006. Following on from an annual decline of a similar magnitude in November, the three month trend rate of growth declined sharply to -7.7% from just -1.0% in the previous quarter.

 

December 07

The implication of this for the year as a whole is that footfall in the UK’s high streets has declined even further from 2006 - by 4.6% in 2007 following on from a decline of 4.4% in 2006.

 

Year on Year
change

Saturday before Christmas

+3.7%

Christmas Eve

+30.3%

Boxing Day

+4.4%

27 December

+1.0%

 

Despite the poor Christmas trading period there appeared to be a surge in activity late on with year on year increases on the Saturday before Christmas and on Christmas Eve. And the prospect of even further bargains at the official start of the sales led to year on year increases in footfall on both Boxing Day and New Year’s Day.

 

All Towns and Cities

 

Regional Cities

Annual Change:

 

 

Annual Change:

 

Dec 06 to Dec 07

-8.6%

 

Dec 06 to Dec 07

-9.1%

Nov 06 to Nov 07

-9.8%

 

Nov 06 to Nov 07

-11.1%

Oct 06 to Oct 07

-5.0%

 

Oct 06 to Oct 07

-6.3%

 

 

 

 

 

Month on month change:

 

 

Month on month change:

 

Nov to Dec 07

14.1%

 

Nov to Dec 07

13.0%

Nov to Dec 06

14.0%

 

Nov to Dec 06

11.5%

Oct to Nov 07

2.7%

 

Oct to Nov 07

3.0%

Oct to Nov 06

6.1%

 

Oct to Nov 06

8.5%

 

 

 

 

 

ATCM - Springboard High Street Index

January 2008 Commentary

 

 

It appears that the new year might be heralding a slow return of consumer confidence. The British Retail Consortium reported a modest year on year increase in UK retail sales of 2.6% in January, together with a significant improvement in the three month trend rate growth from 0.8% in December to 1.5% in January.

 

This slight improvement in the retailing environment seems to be flowing through to our high streets – whilst there was an annual decline in footfall in January of 3.9%, this decline is far smaller than the year on year decline witnessed in January 2007 of 7.8% .

Furthermore, the improvement in footfall in January this year compared with 2007 seems to have come about in weeks 3 and 4, which both saw higher weekly increases in footfall than last year.

 

The difference between the two sets of results – a positive annual change in retail sales contrasting with a negative annual change in footfall in our high streets – might well be related to the performance of particular retailing sectors. The BRC highlighted that whilst food sales were improving, there was a year on year decline in sales of clothing in January for the fourth month in a row, and other sectors such as homewares and health and beauty remained difficult, all of which are predominant in our high streets.

 

All Towns and Cities

 

Regional Cities

Annual Change:

 

 

Annual Change:

 

Jan 07 to Jan 08

-3.9%

 

Jan 07 to Jan 08

-6.6%

Dec 06 to Dec 07

-8.6%

 

Dec 06 to Dec 07

-9.1%

Nov 06 to Nov 07

-9.8%

 

Nov 06 to Nov 07

-11.1%

 

 

 

 

 

Month on month change:

 

 

Month on month change:

 

Dec to Jan 08

-34.9%

 

Dec to Jan 08

-36.7%

Dec to Jan 07

-37.6%

 

Dec to Jan 07

-38.3%

Nov to Dec 07

14.1%

 

Nov to Dec 07

13.0%

Nov to Dec 06

14.0%

 

Nov to Dec 06

11.5%

Oct to Nov 07

2.7%

 

Oct to Nov 07

3.0%

Oct to Nov 06

6.1%

 

Oct to Nov 06

8.5%